Global liver and gallbladder cancer incidence and mortality in 2022 and projections to 2050

Abstract

Abstract: Objective: To analyze the global epidemiological profiles of liver and gallbladder cancer in 2022, and project the global burden of cancer incidence and mortality until 2050.
Methods: Based on the GLOBOCAN 2022 database, we analyzed the global burden of liver and gallbladder cancer in 2022 and the projected disease burden in 2050. We calculated age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) by using Segi's world standard population structure data. We estimated the future number of cases and deaths by 2050 based on world population prospects.
Results: In 2022, there were an estimated 866,136 new cases and 758,725 deaths from liver cancer, corresponding to ASIRs and ASMRs of 8.6 per 100,000 and 7.4 per 100,000, respectively. There were an estimated 122,491 new cases and 89,055 deaths from gallbladder cancer, corresponding to ASIRs and ASMRs of 1.2 per 100,000 and 0.83 per 100,000, respectively. Incidence and mortality rates of liver cancer were higher in males than in females across different age groups, and gallbladder cancer displayed higher rates among females compared to males. The country with the highest ASIR and ASMR for liver cancer was Mongolia. For gallbladder cancer, Bolivia reported the highest ASIR and ASMR. By 2050, the annual number of new cases and deaths from liver cancer will increase to 1,564,034 (an 80.6 percent increase from the year 2022) and 1,420,926 (an 87.3 percent increase), respectively. The annual number of new cases and deaths from gallbladder cancer will increase to 235,096 (a 91.9 percent increase from the year 2022) and 176,725 (a 98.4 percent increase), respectively. Africa has the largest increase in both projected new cases and deaths from liver and gallbladder cancer globally in 2050.
Conclusions: Inequities in liver and gallbladder disease burden persist worldwide. Regions such as Asia and Africa, as well as countries such as Mongolia and Bolivia, which face heavy disease burden and rising incidence rates, must prioritize the establishment of cancer control initiatives.

Key words: Liver cancer, Gallbladder cancer, Incidence, Mortality, Projection, World

Liu Manqi, Xu Mengyuan, Shan Tianhao, Zhao Hong, Zeng Hongmei, Cai Jianqiang. Global liver and gallbladder cancer incidence and mortality in 2022 and projections to 2050[J]. Electronic Journal of Liver Tumor, 2024, 11(2): 53-60.

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